Home Alone
Markets left unattended for Santa's arrival
With the adults (institutions) on vacation, markets are now largely left in the hands of retail investors over the Christmas period.
Much like Home Alone, the house hasn’t been abandoned — but it has been left unsupervised. Liquidity is thinner, reactions are exaggerated, and small moves can carry outsized consequences.
For those paying attention to the charts rather than the deafening noise that dominated November and large parts of December, this time of year still has the potential to deliver an abundance of cheer.
With QQQ and SPY reclaiming bullish momentum last week, my bias is leaning towards a Santa Rally playing out — leaving the bears, who’ve made several failed attempts to break into the house in recent weeks, licking their wounds once again.
Tech Making a Comeback?
Let’s kick things off with QQQ.
For those of you that caught last week’s video, you’ll know the key levels I was looking at: the 50dma, AVWAP from the November lows and the AVWAP from the ATHs.
When below these key levels (note the converging red lines on the chart) Santa’s arrival looked in doubt. But with Friday’s surge above 615, confidence grows that we’re setting up for the year end rally that the bulls have been hoping for.
All that’s left to do is sticking the landing. Sounds easy - but for everything detailed in this week’s newsletter, it’s critical.
Should QQQ hold above 615, then we really ought to be looking at some of the beaten-up names across the speculative ai space for confirmation.
Again, Friday’s price action looked to confirm this, with IREN, CRWV and RIOT all catching solid bids before the big shops closed up for Christmas.
Should these falter over the coming days (and QQQ drops below 615), then sure - we can think about moving to more defensive areas of the market. But as long as they’re holding up - I’m hoping that we’ll see the big players - META, NVDA, MSFT - catch meaningful bids into year end too.
Can META ride to 700?
As many of you know I’m currently long META and hold calls expiring Jan 16. The chart looks great from where I’m sitting, although there was plenty of noise during the latter half of Friday’s session when price tumbled well off the session highs.
For me though, the most important level to bet against remains the 650 area (note the purple area on the chart highlighting this key pivot). I’m also keeping an eye on the prior week’s low at 639, which would almost certainly stop me out of my trade should we see a shakeout.
But for now, I’m focusing on more upside. I won’t bore you with the details, but would recommend watching this video for a full analysis of where I’m at with this one.
Bitcoin: is there a pulse?
Over recent weeks I’ve been keen to point out the bearish formation of a second ascending triangle since Bitcoin topped out at $126k.
Sure, these patterns aren’t bullish - especially below a declining 50dma. But looking at the flip side, Bitcoin hasn’t made a lower low this month, and is currently chopping around a tight range.
The bears are clearly in the driving seat below the 50dma, that’s for sure. But given that they haven’t been able to flush this thing below $80k suggests that maybe, just maybe, there’s a pulse.
The great thing about this setup is that if you’re bullish, the November low offers a solid stop loss level that’s only 10% away (sounds big, but this is Bitcoin we’re talking about).
For this reason, I’m currently long MSTR and hold the 175C expiring in early Jan. I know, I know - it’s a risky one, but if Bitcoin can show signs of life and reclaim the key $90k over the festive break, I’m betting MSTR can make a push back towards 200.
And as I’ve already pointed out, should Bitcoin find itself tumbling further - there’s clear support between $80-85k to observe in the short term, as well as the prior low in MSTR to work as a tight stop.
Risk vs reward - it’s a tight setup. But as long as the wider market shows signs that Santa lives (as is the case now, at the time of writing), I’m willing to take a chance.
ALAB: added to watchlist
If the ‘ai trade’ is set to stage a comeback - something I believe it can do over the coming days and weeks - then ALAB is a ticker well worth keeping an eye on.
Since topping out at $262 earlier this year, it’s been a chastening fall to the Q4 low at $131. But look where buyers stepped in - right at the former highs. And as we know, when prior resistance flips to support - it can only mean one thing: bullish.
This week I want to see price holding above the 50dma and taking out the prior week’s high. Should that play out, this thing has plenty of room to run.
RIOT: not dead yet
Another ai-adjacent name, RIOT has taken a swift and severe beating over the last few weeks. But if we’re acknowledging the present trend - higher highs and higher lows since March of this year - then I think we’d be foolish to rule out this ticker above it’s prior low at $10.59 a share.
It’s definitely a risky play, but look where buyers stepped in: right in the golden pocket from the prior move higher, which also happened to coincide with the prior swing high of $14.50 it made back in July.
Should price break below $14.50 then I’ll think about de-risking a little. Should price break below $10.59, then I’ll think about de-risking a lot.
But until then, I’m happy giving the trend the benefit of the doubt, targeting a move back towards $20 a share in Q1 next year.
CRWV: last week’s big winner
For those of you that caught last week’s CRWV trade - shared in real-time on X - I hope you managed to position yourself for the move that came on Friday!
After highlighting the prior highs as potential support, as well as a bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart, I was happy picking up 75C two weeks out when price was still trading below $65 a share.
Fast forward to Friday, and they raced into the money, locking in a multi-bagger that made a good week, a great week.
Can this thing keep going above the next area of resistance between $85 - $92?
If so, the ai trade lives to fight another day - and I’ll be tempted to buy some common stock heading into the new year.
This is likely going to be my last newsletter this year as I’ll be taking some time off between Christmas and New Year.
I’d like to thank all of you that have subscribed this year. I can’t quite believe it’s grown from less than 10 subs to almost 100 in just a few months!
Keep your eyes peeled for more videos dropping in January, detailing some of my favorite setups on a regular basis. Remember, none of this is financial advice, and you should always do your own research before making the trade your own.
Until 2026, have a wonderful Christmas and a blessed New Year.
Best,
Al