How's Your Risk Appetite?

For those that like it rough...

As a quick follow-up to this morning’s newsletter, I wanted to reiterate a point that probably didn’t come across too well.

Whilst risk models remain in the ‘clean air zone’ - so that’s spreads behaving themselves, TLT fading relative to SPY, XLY catching a big against XLP, you get the picture - there’s no shame in swinging the bat at some of the tape’s more speculative names.

The charts I posted this morning, whilst offering solid entries with tight stops, are just common plays - not the type of charts that’ll send blood to your nether regions but solid picks for the port regardless.

But they aren’t the only charts worth paying attention to.

If you’ve got the stones for it, there are a handful of more speculative setups starting to look interesting just beneath the surface - the kind that tend to move faster and further - and they’re very much in play so long as the tape continues to behave itself.

LGIH

Yes I see the bear flag. But I also see price hovering at critical resistance and refusing to die - despite the apparent end of the world looming large. If rates reverse their aggressive ascent, this thing moves. I’m in December calls on this one.

COIN

I don’t particularly like this one below the purple pivot - but as a speculative trade, I’m comfortable throwing a bit of change at it so long as the green zone (golden pocket) holds as support.

CIFR

Another speculative crypto play. Price coiling for the best part of six months with a breakout pending. Upwardly mobile 200dma acting as support is a good sign, but desperately needs BTC to break higher.

ASTI

Another one sitting in the golden pocket. ASTI is a nice solar play that’s quietly carved out a higher low on the weekly timeframe. So long as it sticks above the 200dma, I’m happy sitting in commons.

NBIS

NBIS breaking out and climbing higher intraday. Last week’s perky volume was the tell. Missed this one personally, but the chart looks good if you’re looking to sell at higher prices.

APH

Another breakout play with perky volume during last week’s session. Would like to see the 10/21ma climb back above the 50dma - but unsure if this happens before or after new highs.

MAGS

So long as MAGS sticks above the green line (AVWAP from April 25 lows) then markets remain ‘risk-on’ in my view.

ARKK

ARKK has a pulse above the two purple bars (key pivots). Lots of work to do below a number of key moving averages - but worth keeping on the radar.

CRWV

CRWV breaking out on record volume. Either the most obvious long going - especially above the 200dma - or the biggest trap I’ve ever seen. Time will tell.

Best,

Alex

Disclaimer: As always, these are simply the setups I’m watching and trading myself — not recommendations. Make the trade your own, manage your risk appropriately, and do your own research.