Pivot Watch!
The mood is tense...
Over the last few weeks, I’ve been treading lightly.
Breadth has been patchy. The VIX has been quietly making higher lows. And price — the only thing that actually matters — wobbled.
So while I’m not convinced we’re completely out of the woods just yet, this week does feel a little different.
Which brings us to Pivot Watch!
A light-hearted nod to Anchorman’s infamous Panda Watch — when Ron Burgundy is forced to turn a slow news day into breaking television — today’s edition takes a slightly different approach.
Rather than walking through a list of charts that have been flashing amber, I’m focusing on a handful of key pivots that I think could shape the coming days, the final stretch of 2025, and potentially even Q1 2026.
DJIA
Kicking things off, Papa Dow.
Note the green bar - that’s the key pivot we’re watching this week. If price can hold above this level, a resumption of the uptrend that’s been in play since April remains the likelier outcome.
Confidence grows with the 10dma (orange line) holding above the 21dma (purple line) and price taking out the prior all time high.
Should we see a retest of the green zone that holds, bullish. If price retests and breaks lower, bearish.
LULU
LULU is looking good here. Let’s break it down.
After a chastening few months, price stabilized between the 1.618 and 1.786 level before breaking to new multi-week highs during Friday’s session. Volume looks perky and at the time of writing, the key pivot (purple bar) looks to be holding.
Moving averages are slowly catching up too, with the 10dma crossing above the 21dma. Price is also trading above the 50dma signaling a shift in the downtrend that’s been in play since summer.
Earnings are on deck Wednesday so expect plenty of volatility. But if the key pivot area between 183-186 continues to hold, I’m expecting more upside - which is why I’m happy sitting in 250C expiring March 20 for a mid-term swing.
MSTR
Arguably one of the most hated stocks of all time, MSTR doesn’t look too bad here.
Hear me out.
Sure, price has taken a swift and painful beating over the last few months, but just look at the volume that stepped in around the 150 level. Price reclaiming the 10dma isn’t a bad sign either - in the short term at least.
If price can take out the key pivot (shown in purple) I’m expecting a pop towards 215-225 before the month is out. It’s a risky play, but I’m in the 225C expiring Jan 2 for a quick scalp in case the move I’m seeing plays out.
CRWV
Like MSTR, CRWV has taken a swift beating over the last few months - but with buyers stepping in between the 61.8 and 78.6 retracement level, I’m keen to see whether this thing can get going above $90 with a view of hitting triple digits.
The purple area is the key pivot to watch in the short term, but as long as price holds above the 10dma (orange line) I think this one has room to run.
RIOT
On RIOT, the key pivot to watch here is shown in purple. If buyers can hold price above the 14-15 level, I expect a charge towards the prior highs around $23 per share.
Above that, things could get silly - with some analysts calling for price targets as high as $70 per share. Maybe it gets there, maybe it doesn’t. But for a short term swing, an entry down here with a stop below the prior low sounds like pretty good risk/reward.
I’m not in this one myself just yet as I’m eager to see how price trades around the aforementioned pivot. But the longer it holds, the more appealing a common stock play becomes.
SPOT
SPOT has had a rough few weeks, no doubt about it. But with buyers stepping in between the 61.8 and 78.6 retracement level, I’m excited to see whether this thing can get going and challenge the key pivot area between 600-610.
Volume looks perky but right now I’m not taking any risks on this one. Ideally, I want to see price recapturing the 10dma (orange line), the 10dma crossing above the 21dma (purple line) and the 50dma (red line) flattening out a little.
For calls this one is definitely a little undercooked, but for common stock I’m not against the idea of owning some shares so long as price holds above 540.
CCJ
Outside of the usual FinX favorites, CCJ calls worked like a charm last week with price breaking above the key pivot area between $87-89.
During Friday’s session, price did suffer a 3% drawdown, but managed to hold the pivot as well as the 10dma, 21dma and 50dma. If we see a continuation of these levels holding as support this week, I’ll likely enter a swing position targeting the low 100s.
The week ahead…
With economic data back on the docket following the government shutdown and the Fed set to announce its interest rate decision - the week ahead feels like a biggie.
At this moment in time, my bias is bullish, so long as the pivots detailed in this post either hold or break to the upside - neither of which are guaranteed.
There are still a number of tickers out there causing me concern, namely in the crypto space but also XLP/XLY (which still hasn’t make a new low).
But for now, if the wider market environment is suggesting there’s more upside to come, I’m happy positioning myself for that outcome.
Things can change and next week’s newsletter may read differently - but for now, Pivot Watch! remains my primary focus.
You stay classy.
Al