Thumbs Up, Thumbs Down

Are You Not Entertained?

With Trump and Iran circling each other rhetorically and geopolitically, the tone over the last few weeks has flipped between short-lived relief to fully fledged panic. Up 1% on Monday, down 1% by Thursday. Rinse, repeat.

But this week feels different.

With Trump’s looming deadline and Iran’s hardline approach to negotiations, we’re nearing a Gladiator moment - the point where the arena falls silent and the crowd waits for the Emperor’s thumb.

Thumb up: a ceasefire, deadline extension or palatable deal

Thumb down: more bombs, more death, more shocks

Whichever way this breaks, it probably won’t arrive quietly.

Risk Assets on the Brink

I couldn’t care less if you think this chart is bullish or bearish.

Maybe MAGS rips higher from here, maybe it doesn’t - but calling this bullish or bearish with confidence at this location is just narrative dressed up as analysis.

Price is sitting on a decision level.

Thumb up: price holds the pivot and reclaims the April anchored VWAP. Bulls buy the exact low and screenshots takeover your feed.

Thumb down: price fails to hold $57-58 and breaks to new lows. TSLA is the first domino to fall. Tim Walz gets a stiffy.

Despite all the complexities that exist in the geopolitical arena presently, QQQ is offering one of the simplest reads going.

Double top —> bear flag —> resolve lower —> retest of breakdown level.

Thumb up: price digs in above the 1.272 extension above $578 or, failing that, makes a higher low above $555. Frank Cappelleri becomes a hall of famer.

Thumb down: price breaks below the Q1 low, signaling full timeframe continuity and increased odds of a deeper drawdown/potential bear market. Bulls delete posts.

Bitcoin traders are some of the worst people to follow during drawdowns. Yeah, Scottie Pippen, I’m looking at you.

Despite a corrective move in excess of 50% since October, there’s no shortage of bullish claims that the bOtToM Is iN and this thing is going to $1m. Hilarious.

Here’s what’s actually happening: price is holding where it needs to (above the purple bar) and the moving average ensemble is coiling nicely - signaling a big move is likely coming down the road.

But here’s the thing: that move could just as easily be another leg lower - which, given the similarities between current price action and that which played out between November and January, isn’t the worst take going.

Thumb up: price breaks the flag to the upside with the 50dma curling to the upside. You’ll know the move is real if MSTR reclaims $150 and COIN breaks above $230.

Thumb down: a crushing move to new lows. Scottie Pippen in a shambles. Henrik Zeberg redraws his Elliott Waves.

Anyone see that JC Parets bought a bank this week?

I see the play - especially if XLF/SPY continues to fight its way back above the key pivot outlined on this chart (red bar, duh).

The issue here is what happens if that doesn’t play out…

Thumb up: XLF marches into the 50s, reclaiming the anchored VWAP from the April lows at ~$51. Citigroup goes apeshit and JC Parets is declared President of FinX.

Thumb down: financials lead equities lower. Private credit concerns resurface and traders claim insider knowledge of drug-fueled orgies at Blue Owl Capital.

Let Battle Commence!

Above all else, I’m incredibly bored of the tedious back-and-forth playing out not just in markets, but across X, where the barbs between bulls and bears seem to get louder by the day.

Honestly, it’s tiring - and frankly, a bit embarrassing.

Because despite the confident calls of HIGHER and LOWER, the market hasn’t actually made its move yet.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t a move coming.

It just means we’re still sitting at the point where leadership needs to confirm which direction it’s going to break.

Thumbs up, thumbs down - we’re about to find out.

Are you not entertained?

Have a great week.

Best,

Alex