Uncut Gems
Big bets, bigger swings, zero stability.
If you’ve seen Uncut Gems, you’ll remember the feeling more than the plot.
The pace is frenetic. Nothing is fully under control and yet throughout, the bets keep getting bigger. It’s an incredibly stressful (but fun) watch.
That’s roughly what this market feels like right now.
Like traders in 2026, Howard Ratner doesn’t operate in a stable environment. He operates in momentum bursts, emotional swings, and short windows of opportunity.
One minute he’s buried. The next he’s looking like a genius.
Then everything flips again.
Sound familiar?
A Quick Recap
After predicting last week’s price action would be determined by the Emperor’s thumb, hostilities, oil and international waterways find themselves back in vogue this week following the breakdown in negotiations between the US and Iran.
Which leaves markets in an interesting spot.
On the surface, things don’t look great.
WTI is up 13% from last week’s lows, while the VIX - having briefly dipped below 18 - is now pushing back above 21 at the time of writing.
And yet, despite a backdrop that should be weighing on risk assets, markets are holding up… ok.
Why is this happening? For clues - refer to the risk models below:
As was the case during last week’s session, Risk Model 1 and Risk Model 2 are currently sitting in the clean air zone, sailing on the tailwinds that are:
Tightening credit spreads
XLY catching a bid relative to XLP
The VIX dropping below its 50dma
TLT dropping relative to SPY
So long as this sticks, dips remain buyable.
But if Uncut Gems taught us anything, it’s that situations that look under control can unravel very quickly.
One headline.
One Truth Social post.
One volatility spike.
And suddenly we’re testing those anchored VWAPs from the 2026 lows.
Where’s My Money?
For some people, trading in this kind of environment is a dream.
Go take a look at Godzilla Trader 🦖 and the guy’s absolutely killing it with day trades right now.
But that isn’t me.
This is Uncut Gems territory - fast decisions, fast reversals, and positions that can swing wildly the moment Bagher Ghalibaf or President Trump fat-fingers a tweet.
That style works for some people. I’m looking for something steadier.
If I’m buying stocks here (which I am), I want names that have shown consistent strength over the last few weeks - the kind that are less likely to hand back their gains on the next headline shock.
In short, I want volume. I want uptrends. I want stocks holding above their weekly 10/21wma moving cloud. I want trends supported by the macro. I want moving average alignment. I want bull flags. I want flows. I want to play that relative strength.
Let’s dig in to some charts…
FBRX
Biotech. One of the biggest areas of relative strength this year. Enter FBRX with record volume and flows, breaking out of a flag and targeting new highs.
ET
Flagging high and tight ET is on the watchlist here. Moving averages bunching a little suggests a big move is coming - and as long as its above the 50dma, I’m leaning long.
AMZN
Whilst the rest of the market kept falling, AMZN moved sideways throughout Feb-March before bursting higher last week. One of the stronger looking MAGS constituents.
SEI
Held where it needed to after months of consolidation. 200dma remains upwardly mobile. Looking at the prior high of $70.19 before staging a potential breakout play.
MEOH
Bullish MA alignment. Insane volume. An ongoing macro catalyst. MEOH is sitting top of the watchlist right now, and with good reason.
NFLX
Huge volume at the lows. Moving averages moving back into alignment. A breakout the multi-week highs. NFLX isn’t too shabby here - especially given the wider software space. Just needs the 200dma for me to be a buyer.
So I’m sticking with strength and following trends.
If a stock can keep its footing while the tape feels like Howard Ratner - loud, fast, and one headline from chaos - chances are it’s not done moving higher when clearer skies return.
The names that refuse to break when oil spikes, volatility lifts, and headlines start flying are usually telling you something. They’re showing where institutions are willing to stay involved even when conditions aren’t ideal.
And when the noise fades, spreads tighten again, and the VIX rolls back over, those same stocks have a habit of leading. So rather than chasing every swing in a tape that can change character overnight, I’m leaning into resilience.
You do you and as always, have a great week.
Best,
Alex
As always, this isn’t financial advice. I’m sharing what I’m seeing and how I’m positioning - not what you should do with your own capital. Do your own research and make the trade your own.