Wait for it...
Why the Arrival of January matters
Arrival neatly captures the current state of play in markets.
During the Christmas break, markets tend to resemble the film’s opening scenes: confusion, a degree of fear, and no shortage of speculation. Signals appear, but without context — and are quickly interpreted as something they may not be.
As the film progresses, the noise fades. Participation from the key protagonists increases, and what initially looked like danger becomes easier to interpret once enough information is available.
We’re now just moving beyond those opening scenes — which, judging by social media, has been deeply uncomfortable for some.
For others, the low-volatility slog and tax-loss harvesting into year-end provided a rare luxury: time. Time for rest, for perspective, and for letting both mindset and setups mature rather than forcing conclusions.
The mistake in Arrival isn’t missing the message — it’s rushing to interpret it. January should give us a clearer steer on what the market is actually saying. Whether that message proves bullish, bearish, or something in between will be determined not by opinion, but by participation.
Bitcoin will show us the way
No ticker in the market sums up everything outlined in the intro better than Bitcoin.
Go to X, search the cashtag ‘BTC’ and see for yourself. The platform is awash with ‘hot takes’, ranging from outright bearish to super bullish - with almost zero credence given to the more logical take detailed below.
Bitcoin is in a primary uptrend until proven otherwise.
There, I said it.
How do I know for sure? Well, dating back to November 2022 Bitcoin has failed to make a lower low on the weekly timeframe. Pretty simple, right?
Using this simple and irrefutable logic, we must therefore conclude that until price breaks below $74 (the former higher low - see April 2025 on the chart), the trend remains our friend - and the trend, right now, is up and to the right.
Should price break below $74k then OK, it’s a bear market. But right now that hasn’t happened, despite what your favorite furu proclaims.
What does this mean positionally?
With the holiday season now firmly in the rear-view mirror — and the institutional crowd back from skiing, lunches, and pretending not to look at their screens — the market should begin to speak a little more clearly. Liquidity improves, volume returns, and moves start to carry intent rather than coincidence.
That matters, because genuine trends rarely need much persuasion once the larger players are involved. If this is the start of something more durable, confirmation should arrive sooner rather than later — through participation, not proclamations.
And if it doesn’t, that too is information.
Early January has a habit of resolving ambiguity quickly. Either price finds support as volume builds, or the signal fades once real capital shows up.
In both cases, the message becomes easier to interpret — provided we’re willing to wait for the market to finish its sentence.
Coinbase
Thankfully, searching for clues on future market direction shouldn’t take much longer.
Right now one of the tickers I’m long is COIN, which much like Bitcoin, has failed to make a lower low on the weekly timeframe since April 2025.
But despite this irrefutable fact, the vast majority of traders are already throwing this one on the scrap heap.
Sure, it’s down almost 50% from its prior high, but that alone counts for nothing unless we see a decisive break below $142 a share. Again, I don’t make the rules.
Let’s look for further clues - price has retraced down into a key Fibonacci extension, there’s an inverted H&S patter playing out on the weekly and last week saw the first bullish RSI divergence from oversold levels on the daily chart since…wait for it…April of 2025.
Look, I’m not saying this isn’t a risky play, but using the weekly trend, technical analysis and everything outlined in this video for guidance, I’m happy with the risk/reward that’s on offer whilst everyone dances on graves that right now, simply don’t exist.
Back to the clues I’m looking for: I want to see COIN move higher, supported by volume. It needs to recapture the 50dma at ~280 and hold there. Should we then see a breakout above the 200dma on high volume, just like we saw in April 2025, I’ll feed comfortable that my swings were winners, with a view of adding more as the trade matures.
Patterns looking for resolution
I’ll make this short and sweet as I appreciate this post has been a little wordier than usual.
If we’re following the logic of allowing the markets to show us the way, focusing on the wider uptrend that’s been in play since last April, then a solid signal to remain bullish would be these tickers resolving higher - on volume - from their present formations. Should the reverse happen, and these patterns breakdown on volume - then sure, we can talk about getting a little more defensive.
META: flagging below the AVWAP from the prior highs and prior lows. Confirmation comes with price breaking and holding above $681.
ALAB: breaking out above the AVWAP from the prior high and moving into the gap. Bull flag already broken to the upside suggesting renewed momentum.
LULU: flagging high and tight below the 200dma with buyers stepping in after earnings. Suggests more upside should price break and hold above 223.
TOL: flagging in a broad range above an upwardly mobile 200dma. Bullish above $144.
FUTU: flagging in a broad range above an upwardly mobile 200dma after successfully reclaiming the 50dma on significant volume. Clear skies above $204.
So there you have it — the first newsletter of 2026, without the crystal ball or the theatrics.
The framework is simple: respect the primary trend, watch participation, and let price confirm (or deny) the narrative. No rush. No need to front-run conclusions while the market is still clearing its throat.
If these patterns resolve higher, then fine — we press, we add, and we let time do the heavy lifting.
If they fail, that’s not a mistake — it’s information.
Either way, the message won’t stay ambiguous for long. January rarely allows it to.
The only real error, as Arrival reminds us, is forcing an interpretation before the sentence is finished.
Let’s see how it ends.
Best,
Al