Weekly Chart Review
Cutting through noise like Bateman with a cleaver.
The Fed cuts 25bps and suddenly everyone’s an economist.
Within minutes of Powell stepping away from the podium, the hot takes came flooding in— hawkish, dovish, bullish, bearish — pick your poison.
But here’s the kicker, it’s all just noise.
Markets rarely reveal their hand in a single press conference. The real story unfolds in the candles, and on the weekly chart, those stories carry a lot more weight than whatever your favorite furu can cram into 280 characters.
So ditch the ‘central banker’ hat and pull on your ‘beat the market’ big-boy pants. On top of the setups I shared earlier this week, here are a few more that look primed for some juicy moves.
UPST
UPST is one of my favorite setups at the moment. Since breaking above the VWAP from the ATH (that’s the green line) last year, an inverted head and shoulders pattern has been building nicely, with price coiling just below the 0.5 fib.
What happens from here, nobody knows, but I’m keeping an eye out to see whether:
A) price retests the VWAP from the ATH and lock in the right shoulder of the IHS pattern or…
B) …price breaks above the 0.5 fib and towards the neckline before taking on the 0.618 fib at $105.11
Buying longer dated calls is tempting here, but I’m holding out until price shows me the way. (Full disclosure, I did enter some calls last week, which ran to 25% before stopping out breakeven. Remember, this is a no bullshit zone - sorry to disappoint.)
OKTA
OKTA looks good heading into next week, arguably more so than UPST. Price has bumbled around the 0.382 log fib for a while now, flipping it from prior resistance into support. Price is coiled tighter than a broker’s jaw and looks ready for a big move in my opinion.
I’m in the December $100 calls which were picked up for just $1.86. I’m happy keeping these open so long as price holds above the prior week’s low.
Full disclosure, this wasn’t initially on my radar until Godzilla Trader shared his take on X - at which point I did my own research and confirmed that it looked like a banger. Again, no bullshit here.
CRWD
CRWD attracted more attention on X than a strip joint on payday having made this monster move from the key 1.272 level last week. If price gets going above the prior high and flips prior resistance into support, I wouldn’t bet against a move upwards of $600 in the medium term.
I’m kicking myself over this one as I had calls locked and loaded at $411 a share before cashing out way too early. Calls that were bought for less than $500 rocketed in value this week and are now worth in excess of $8k.
This sucked - so why am I sharing it? Because as much as I’d like to pretend I held the calls and saw my position 10x like every other furu, the reality is that this ticker has taught me a valuable lesson - let your winners ride.
MSTR
Finishing on a lighter note, one of the most hated stocks out there, MSTR, popped a juicy looking candle on the weekly chart, with price poking back above the 1.414 log fib level. If price can hold above $319 I’m expecting a big move on this one, which is why I’m currently in the 425c expiring October 25.
Your favorite furu probably thinks this stock is a ponzi - and who knows, they might be right. But with your second favorite furu telling everyone that Bitcoin has topped and the 4 year cycle is over, I’m happy putting my balls on the line to prove them wrong - as was the case when Bitcoin was trading at $25k, $50k and $75k.
Disclaimer
Could these charts change shape before the monthly candles reveal themselves?
Maybe.
Divergences are popping up like hookers on new-issue day and Papa Dow’s walking with a limp. Yet with all the ingredients for a ‘pullback pie’ laid out on the counter, the only thing getting cooked right now are the bears.
Stay winning.
Alex